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Research: Increased Safety |
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Project Summaries:
The following are the NEXTOR research projects in alignment with FAA Flight Plan Goal 1: Increased Safety.
Measurement Display Complexity for Civil Aerospace Medical Institute
Sponsoring Agency: FAA
NEXTOR Team: Missy Cummings, MIT
Develop an objective methodology to measure information complexity associated with Air Traffic Management
displays.
Airport Surface Movement Enhancement/ Runway Incursion
Prevention Investment Analysis
Sponsoring Agency: ASD-400
NEXTOR Team: Amedeo Odoni and Arnold Barnett, MIT
This project considers data about U.S. runway accidents, about fatal runway
crashes worldwide, and about recent U.S. runway incursions viewed as
especially dangerous by pilots and air traffic controllers. Then we
ask: based on existing patterns and projected growth in air traffic,
how many runway accidents might be expected in the U.S. over the
next 20 years, and what consequences might be expected from these
accidents? No more than approximate answers can be provided,
however, our underlying assumptions can be made explicit so that
readers can make their own judgments about the plausibility of the
analysis.
The estimates are surprising and disturbing. Properly understood, recent patterns
appear to imply roughly 20 fatal runway collisions over 2002-2021 in
the U.S. Nearly all of these would involve at least one jet plane,
and such jets would suffer fatality rates averaging about 35%.
(Among survivors, the fraction with serious injuries would
approximate the fraction killed.) Commuter planes, air taxis, and
general aviation aircraft would figure in about 3/4 of the fatal
crashes, and such ill-fated planes would suffer average death rates
near 80%. All tolled, runway collisions could cause the deaths of
nearly 1000 people between 2002-2021. This represents nearly eight
planeloads of jet travelers, and eight planeloads of travelers on
smaller commercial aircraft.
Such numbers are all the more unnerving because, between 1997-99, there was only one
fatal event on a US domestic jet, which killed eleven people. There
was one commuter plane crash (with 29 fatalities) during the same
period. In consequence, it is reasonable to fear that U.S. runway
crashes between 2002-21 could cause more deaths and serious injuries
than all other causes combined.
However, such an assessment is not a prediction. Rather, it represents the baseline
level of threat that new measures—technological and otherwise—must
strive to counteract. Similar forecasts could have been made in
years past (e.g., about the danger of thunderstorm-induced wind
shear), but they did not come to pass because of a multifaceted
program that greatly diminished the threat. What this research
suggests is the importance of a similar program for US runways.
Analysis of Aircraft Separation and
Collision Risk Modeling
Sponsoring Agency: ASD-430
NEXTOR Team: H.D. Sherali and A.A. Trani, VPI
NEXTOR is supporting the FAA in a small study to investigate the effects of
aircraft separations on collision risk. NEXTOR is just one of
several participants in this activity sponsored by FAA and Euro
control.
As part of this group, NEXTOR’s main task has been to analyze current and future
airspace scenarios developed as part of the NARIM model umbrella for
understanding the levels of collision risk exposure today and under
future Free Flight scenarios. VPI has developed a computer model to
study outcome scenarios generated by the FAA (NARIM scenarios),
conflicts under no-ATC intervention for current conditions and in
the year 2005 scenario, characterization of conflict geometry, and
sector loads (per time interval). The idea behind the model is to
examine the NARIM flight data, and assuming no intervention, record
the collision risk events. Specifically, we classify each intrusion
of aircraft B into a proximity shell of aircraft A via the following
vector:
[Entry point of proximity shell, exit point of proximity
shell, relative headings of A and B, duration of intrusion, and
closest distance between A and B during the intrusion]
VPI is working with a subset of the FAA ETMS data (including 4200 flights in the
Eastern U.S.) comprising four ARTCC Centers. This study serves as a
precursor to the development of a toolbox of models (as proposed in
the current Aircraft Separation Standards and Collision Risk
Modeling Concept Paper) to quantify the economic impacts of reduced
separations and their effect in collision-risk metrics.
Future enhancements to this model can then include a superimposition of ATC
intervention strategies and blunder rates in coordination with
man-in-the-loop simulations.
Deployment of Aviation Security Technologies
Sponsoring Agency: FAA
NEXTOR Team: John Kobza, Texas Tech; Sheldon Jacobson, U. of Illinois
The FAA was commissioned to purchase and deploy aviation security
technologies in airports throughout the United States. The challenge
was to determine the impact (measured by security performance and
cost) of deploying these various security devices. This issue
is addressed in the Deployment of Aviation Security Technologies
project. NEXTOR researchers at Texas Tech and the University
of Illinois must define meaningful system performance measures,
describe relationships between them, and determine their impact on
passenger safety. They must also develop discrete optimization
mathematical models that describe and capture the problem of how to
ensure maximum security while maintaining acceptable throughput
rates and remaining within budget. It is necessary, then, to apply
heuristic procedures to provide practical solutions. This project is
now completed.
Development of an Action Plan for
Integration of System Safety Performance Measures
and Risk Assessment
Sponsoring Agency: FAA
NEXTOR Team: Geoffrey Gosling, UCB
This research project builds on prior NEXTOR research for the FAA Office of System Safety on system
safety performance measures and is undertaking a scoping study to
support the subsequent development of an action plan for integrating
system safety performance measurement and risk assessment. The
objective of the action plan is to identify and measure the full
range of risks that impact system safety as well as assess the
potential contribution of alternative means of reducing those
risks. The scoping study will identify the issues that such a plan
would need to address and the information resources available to
support an integrated approach to system safety risk management.
Since a comprehensive approach to risk management within the
aviation system involves a large number of different offices within
the FAA as well as an even larger number of stakeholders in the
wider aviation industry, the development of an effective action plan
needs to take account of both on-going activities and planned future
activities within this broader institutional context. The research
will include a review of relevant literature on system safety risk
assessment, as well as structured interviews with representatives of
the various stakeholder groups.
Human Factors Support to FAA Office of System Safety
Sponsoring Agency: ASY-200
NEXTOR Team: Karlene Roberts and Geoffrey Gosling, UCB
James Blanchard and Deborah Osborne, Embry-Riddle
This project was directed at three objectives: research into ways to improve the use
of human error models within the analysis of aviation safety data;
identification of user requirements for enhancements to the
prototype Integration Tool, a website-based tool to access,
integrate, and analyze flight crew human factor data; and
development of statistical analysis techniques using data generated
by the current version of the Integration Tool. A prototype
instrument to obtain data on individual, team, and organizational
factors used with existing aviation safety databases was developed
and discussed with safety data analysts within the industry. A
survey of data access needs by aviation safety data analysts was
designed and distributed to selected respondents in the industry.
Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University and UC Berkeley developed
statistical analysis procedures to use with both the National
Transportation Safety Board accident and incident data and the FAA
Pilot Deviation System data. Embry-Riddle also undertook a training
needs assessment at several flight training centers.
The results of the research are documented in NEXTOR Research Report RR-98-10,
“Development of the Flight Crew Human Factors Integration Tool,”
Research Report RR-98-11, “Implementation of Analysis Methods and
Training Needs Assessment,” Research Report RR-98-12, “Improving the
Representation of Human Error in the Use of the Flight Crew Human
Factors Integration Tool,” and Working Paper WP-98-2, “Proposed
Functional Enhancements for the Flight Crew Human Factors
Integration Tool.” These are available from the NEXTOR program
office.
The Health of an Air Carrier from the Perspective of Safety
Sponsoring Agency: SASO, FAA
NEXTOR Team: Arnold Barnett, MIT
With the growing complexity of aviation operations it has become increasingly
necessary to look beyond the actions of individuals in order to
understand those system-based, error-producing conditions that
adversely influence aviation safety. Thus, AFS established SASO as
the vehicle for developing and implementing a comprehensive,
integrated system safety approach to the regulation and oversight of
aviation certificate holders. This system approach entails the
application of technical and managerial skills designed to identify,
analyze, and mitigate hazards and risks within components of the
aviation system, including the people, procedures, materials, tools,
equipment, facilities, and software employed by certificate
holders. SASO will encompass the full range of AFS responsibilities
for oversight of aviation entity activities.
The FAA seeks a few measures and indicators, which in turn may be made up of
additional subordinate measures and indicators, which if known, will
provide us with an overall view of the state of safety within an air
carrier. In theory, it should be possible to define a network of
performance measures and risk indicators that can be obtained for an
airline, any part of an airline, the FAA safety oversight function,
or any part of that system. NEXTOR will define a network of
performance measures and risk indicators that can be used to
evaluate the safety of a Title 14 Code of Federal Regulations Part
121 (14 CFR 121) commercial operator.
Investment Analysis Support
Sponsoring Agency: FAA
NEXTOR Team: Arnold Barnett, MIT
This project provides safety benefits analysis support in the investment
analysis effort on airport surface safety initiatives and on airport
enhancement strategy analysis. It also reviews the methodology used
to determine the effectiveness of ASDE-X multilateration technology,
as well as reviews categorization of the severity of surface
incidents and accidents, and examines methodologies developed to
understand and quantify the risks and effectiveness of proposed airport enhancement strategies.
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